Mako Model Portfolio

Change Log

1. NoteJun 5, 2026

   Weekly Jawz review: hold SUMMER book unchanged

   Scheduled weekly Jawz review found the model portfolio remains aligned with the current Jawz YELLOW / SUMMER regime. The book already reflects the May 22 regime-driven rebalance: SGOV remains the largest stabilizer, PDBC and GLD express inflation/real-asset exposure, and QUAL provides measured quality-equity participation. No trade or rebalance is required this week.

   01 World

   Jawz reads YELLOW / SUMMER with inflation as the dominant risk. Growth is mixed, inflation remains a headwind, and financial conditions are loose/stable with G4 liquidity neutral. Data health is current and no trust/data blocker was observed for the portfolio decision.

   02 Book

   Public book is roughly SGOV 45%, GLD 20%, PDBC 20%, QUAL 15%, and cash near zero. Live prices showed total value near $978.5k. The book is already less cash-heavy after the SUMMER rebalance while still retaining SGOV ballast. Drift scan flagged GLD only as watch: fit eased from 5/5 to 4/5, but the inflation/policy-stress thesis still survives.

   03 Decide

   Hold the existing model weights unchanged. A new rebalance would be gratuitous because the May 22 adjustment already reduced excess SGOV and increased the SUMMER-aligned commodity and quality-equity sleeves. Do not chase the more risk-positive external BI themes while the official Jawz read remains mixed and inflation-led.

   04 Observe

   Next review should monitor whether YELLOW / SUMMER persists, whether G4 liquidity turns supportive or draining, whether inflation breadth continues to justify PDBC/GLD, and whether GLD drift worsens from watch to a genuine thesis problem. Maintain a small positive cash buffer in any future whole-share rebalance.

2. NoteMay 29, 2026

   Weekly Jawz review: hold SUMMER book unchanged

   Scheduled weekly Jawz review found the public model portfolio already aligned with the current YELLOW / SUMMER regime after last week's rebalance. SUMMER still favors commodities and selected equity exposure over excess cash, while the YELLOW headline, pessimistic consumer sentiment, restrictive real yields, and neutral G4 liquidity argue against adding more risk this week. No trade or rebalance is required.

   01 World

   Jawz reads YELLOW / SUMMER with inflation as the dominant risk. Growth is mixed but improving at the margin, inflation remains a headwind, and financial conditions are loose/stable with G4 liquidity neutral. Data health is current, so no trust/data blocker was observed.

   02 Book

   The book is roughly SGOV 45%, GLD 20%, PDBC 20%, QUAL 15%, cash near zero. This is less defensive than the prior FALL book but still keeps SGOV as the largest stabilizer. PDBC is the clearest SUMMER/inflation sleeve, GLD remains policy/inflation ballast, and QUAL provides measured quality-equity participation. Drift scan flagged only GLD as watch: fit eased from 5/5 at entry to 4/5, but the thesis still holds.

   03 Decide

   Hold the existing model weights unchanged. A second consecutive rebalance would be gratuitous because last week's SGOV reduction and PDBC/QUAL increases already addressed the SUMMER shift. Wait for either a stronger risk-on confirmation, a return to RED/liquidity stress, or evidence that GLD/PDBC inflation theses have weakened before adjusting.

   04 Observe

   Next review should monitor whether YELLOW / SUMMER persists, whether G4 liquidity turns supportive or draining, and whether GLD's lower-but-still-aligned fit deteriorates further. Keep a small positive cash buffer in future whole-share rebalances to avoid ledger cleanup trades.

3. DecreaseQUALMay 22, 2026

   Cash cleanup: resize QUAL by one share after weekly rebalance

   The weekly rebalance left a small negative model cash balance because ETF quantities are whole shares. Reduce QUAL by one share to keep the public model portfolio cash ledger non-negative. This is an operational sizing cleanup inside the same model-portfolio rebalance, not a change in investment view.

   Quantity 710 → 709Price $214.38Value $214

   01 World

   No macro change from the weekly review: Jawz remains RED / SUMMER with inflation as dominant risk and a cautious but less cash-heavy stance than the prior FALL book.

   02 Book

   After the SGOV reduction and PDBC/QUAL increases, the model ledger showed a small negative cash balance of about $199 due to whole-share sizing. One QUAL share is the smallest practical cleanup using live prices.

   03 Decide

   Reduce QUAL from 710 shares to 709 shares at the same live review price, leaving the quality-equity sleeve essentially unchanged while returning cash to a non-negative balance.

   04 Observe

   Future rebalances should leave a slightly larger cash buffer when whole-share ETF quantities are used, especially when multiple adjustments are registered sequentially.

4. IncreaseQUALMay 22, 2026

   Weekly Jawz review: increase QUAL modestly for equity participation

   With Jawz now reading SUMMER rather than FALL, the book can carry somewhat more equity participation, but the RED headline, weak sentiment, and draining G4 liquidity argue against a full risk-on move. QUAL is the existing quality-equity sleeve, so a modest increase improves participation while keeping the portfolio disciplined. This is a model-portfolio adjustment only, not real-money execution or investment advice.

   Quantity 476 → 710Price $214.38Value $50,165

   01 World

   Jawz live regime is RED / SUMMER: inflation remains dominant, growth is improving but uneven, and liquidity is draining. External BI is more constructive on risk assets due to liquidity mechanics, AI/capex strength, and semiconductor scarcity, but the official Jawz read still calls for caution rather than broad beta chasing.

   02 Book

   QUAL was ~10% of the book and positive versus cost basis. Under the prior FALL regime it was intentionally small. The regime shift makes zero/low equity exposure less appropriate, but equities are not a clean champion in the RED headline. Increasing QUAL modestly keeps participation through higher-quality large caps without adding speculative or high-beta exposure.

   03 Decide

   Increase QUAL from 476 shares to 710 shares, lifting the sleeve toward roughly 15%. Fund it from the SGOV reduction alongside the PDBC increase. Keep the increase modest and use QUAL rather than speculative growth because liquidity and sentiment risks remain elevated.

   04 Observe

   Watch whether the SUMMER equity tilt broadens into value/materials/financials leadership or whether the RED headline reasserts through liquidity stress. QUAL remains the first equity sleeve to revisit if risk conditions deteriorate and a possible bridge if a more constructive regime persists.

5. IncreasePDBCMay 22, 2026

   Weekly Jawz review: increase PDBC for SUMMER inflation exposure

   The live Jawz cycle moved to SUMMER, where inflation is rising and commodities are the clearest favored asset-class tilt. The portfolio already held PDBC as its broad commodity sleeve; increasing it is a disciplined adjustment using an existing thesis rather than adding unnecessary complexity. This is a model-portfolio adjustment only, not real-money execution or investment advice.

   Quantity 8319 → 11056Price $18.20Value $49,813

   01 World

   Jawz live regime is RED / SUMMER with dominant inflation risk. Growth is not collapsing: ISM and initial claims are improving, while consumer sentiment is weak. Inflation readings are rising. This supports real-asset exposure even though the RED headline and draining G4 liquidity argue against an aggressive beta rotation.

   02 Book

   Before adjustment PDBC was ~15% of the book and slightly profitable versus cost basis. In the updated regime, broad commodities are more aligned than excess cash, while GLD already covers policy-stress/inflation ballast. Increasing PDBC lifts the most direct SUMMER/inflation sleeve without relying on equity multiple expansion.

   03 Decide

   Increase PDBC from 8,319 shares to 11,056 shares, moving the sleeve toward roughly 20% of the portfolio. Fund it from the SGOV reduction. Keep the increase measured because commodities can reverse if the growth leg fails or inflation pressure fades.

   04 Observe

   Watch whether inflation breadth and commodity momentum remain supportive. Revisit if growth weakens faster than inflation persists, if the Jawz cycle rotates away from SUMMER, or if PDBC becomes the dominant source of book volatility.

6. DecreaseSGOVMay 22, 2026

   Weekly Jawz review: reduce SGOV after SUMMER regime shift

   Scheduled weekly review found a material regime shift from the prior FALL setup to Jawz RED / SUMMER: inflation remains the dominant risk, growth inputs are improving, and the live cycle tilts now favor commodities and selected equity exposure over excess cash. SGOV remains the liquidity anchor, but at 55% it is now too large for the updated regime read. This is a model-portfolio adjustment only, not real-money execution or investment advice.

   Quantity 5476 → 4485Price $100.63Value $99,724

   01 World

   Jawz live regime is RED with business-cycle SUMMER, dominant risk inflation, high confidence. Growth composite is yellow with ISM and claims improving but consumer sentiment weak; inflation is a headwind/rising; G4 liquidity reads draining and financial conditions neutral/stable. External BI also points to Macro Summer, AI/capex strength, and rising structural liquidity, but official Jawz headline remains risk-aware because liquidity is draining and sentiment is weak.

   02 Book

   Public book before adjustment was ~55% SGOV, ~19% GLD, ~15% PDBC, ~10% QUAL, cash ~$55. Drift scan flagged SGOV as review_now: fit fell from 4/5 at entry to 2/5 after the FALL→SUMMER shift. The portfolio was still defensively coherent, but excess cash-equivalent weight had become the clearest mismatch versus SUMMER tilts.

   03 Decide

   Reduce SGOV from 5,476 shares to 4,485 shares, moving the cash-equivalent sleeve from roughly 55% toward roughly 45%. Keep SGOV as the largest stabilizer and dry-powder sleeve, but release capital for inflation/SUMMER-aligned exposure rather than making a full risk-on rotation.

   04 Observe

   Revisit if Jawz RED worsens into a growth/liquidity shock, if SUMMER confirmation fades, or if cash drag persists while commodities/equity participation become more aligned. SGOV should remain the first source of redeployable capital if the regime continues improving, and a rebuild candidate if liquidity stress becomes dominant.

7. NoteMay 15, 2026

   Weekly Jawz review: hold defensive FALL book unchanged

   Scheduled weekly review found the public model portfolio still broadly aligned with Jawz's current YELLOW / FALL regime. The book remains overweight cash-equivalent SGOV and real assets (GLD/PDBC), with only a small QUAL quality-equity sleeve. Drift scan flagged QUAL as low fit in FALL, but at ~10% it is intentionally sized as limited participation rather than a regime bet. External business-intelligence notes point to improving liquidity and AI/capex risk appetite, but Jawz's live regime still reads inflation-dominant with cash and commodities favored, so no disciplined rebalance is warranted this week.

   01 World

   Jawz regime is YELLOW, business-cycle FALL/stagflation, dominant risk inflation, financial conditions loose/stable, with a freshness flag on U Michigan sentiment. Business-intelligence notes are more risk-positive (liquidity expansion, Macro Summer, AI/capex strength), but the official Jawz regime remains cautious.

   02 Book

   Priced book coverage was effectively complete: SGOV ~$550.6k (~55%), GLD ~$193.6k (~19%), PDBC ~$154.8k (~15%), QUAL ~$100.2k (~10%), cash ~$55. The book is dominated by cash-equivalent and real-asset/inflation sleeves, matching Jawz FALL tilts. Drift scan produced one watch flag: QUAL fit score 2/5, stable since entry, because equities-quality is not favored in FALL.

   03 Decide

   No trade or rebalance. Keep SGOV/GLD/PDBC/QUAL weights unchanged. QUAL remains a deliberately small quality-equity participation sleeve, not a signal to increase beta. Wait for either a confirmed regime rotation or clear thesis deterioration before adjusting.

   04 Observe

   Next review should watch whether the Jawz regime resolves toward the more risk-on external BI read or remains inflation-dominant FALL. Reopen sizing if QUAL grows materially above its intended sleeve, GLD/PDBC theses weaken through decisive disinflation, or SGOV cash-equivalent sleeve becomes too defensive after a confirmed regime improvement.

8. OpenQUALMay 6, 2026

   Open QUAL quality-equity sleeve

   Even in a hostile regime, a public reference portfolio should retain a modest equity sleeve. Quality large caps are the most disciplined way to keep some participation without pretending this is a favorable beta environment.

   Price $210.04Value $99,979

   01 World

   Jawz is underweight equities overall, but growth is not collapsing hard enough to justify a zero-equity posture.

   02 Book

   A small quality-equity sleeve allows the book to stay connected to equity upside while avoiding aggressive beta or speculative exposures.

   03 Decide

   Allocate 10% to QUAL as the portfolio's sole equity sleeve.

   04 Observe

   If the regime deteriorates further, this is the first risk sleeve to revisit; if the regime improves, it is a natural source for expansion.

9. OpenGLDMay 6, 2026

   Open GLD inflation-hedge sleeve

   Gold is the cleanest liquid hedge against policy stress, inflation distrust, and weakening confidence in nominal anchors. In the current regime it belongs as a real asset counterweight to equity and duration risk.

   Price $430.96Value $199,965

   01 World

   Jawz identifies inflation as the dominant macro risk factor, with a RED regime and stagflationary characteristics.

   02 Book

   The portfolio needs a real-asset sleeve that can defend purchasing power without relying on broad equity beta.

   03 Decide

   Allocate 20% to GLD as the portfolio's primary inflation and policy-stress hedge.

   04 Observe

   This position should be reevaluated if disinflation resumes decisively or if real yields rise enough to materially impair the gold thesis.

10. OpenPDBCMay 6, 2026

    Open PDBC commodity sleeve

    The regime calls for meaningful commodity exposure, not a token weight. PDBC expresses the inflation and stagflation read cleanly while avoiding the current Jawz pricing misresolution affecting DBC.

    Price $18.03Value $149,992

    01 World

    Jawz's current regime read favors commodities in a FALL / stagflation setup because inflation remains elevated while growth is slowing.

    02 Book

    The book needs direct exposure to real assets that can benefit from persistent inflation pressure and supply-side stress.

    03 Decide

    Allocate 15% to PDBC as the portfolio's broad commodity sleeve.

    04 Observe

    Monitor whether inflation breadth narrows or the macro regime rotates away from stagflation; if so, this sleeve may deserve to shrink.

11. OpenSGOVMay 6, 2026

    Open SGOV cash-equivalent core

    Establish the primary defensive cash-equivalent sleeve. In a RED / FALL regime with inflation as the dominant risk, preserving optionality matters more than forcing risk exposure. SGOV expresses capital preservation while keeping the portfolio fully invested in a liquid short-duration vehicle.

    Price $100.44Value $550,009

    01 World

    Jawz is reading a RED macro regime in the FALL quadrant: inflation remains the dominant risk, growth is mixed, and the general tilt is cash overweight, commodities overweight, equities underweight.

    02 Book

    For a public reference portfolio, the largest sleeve should stabilize the book and preserve flexibility rather than chase returns in a hostile regime.

    03 Decide

    Allocate 55% to SGOV as the portfolio's core reserve and liquidity anchor.

    04 Observe

    If the regime improves materially or inflation risk breaks lower, this sleeve becomes the main source of redeployable capital.